Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 212.33

+1.1%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: nathan chitty who wrote (1641)	1/17/1997 5:15:00 PM
From: vegetarian	of 61433

I am not aware of creating an original response unless you make at least one post as you did. Two possibilities for today's price movement: -options expiring today as you said. -there were 8 million shorts in ASCEND and I am sure many have covered seeing the price moving in the other direction (would be interesting to know how many, anybody knows if such data can be obtained?) As someone said this is institutional play and hard to imagine that the price rise was due to buyers who really think that the stock is a great buy after today's news (it was a better buy before the earnings). If the price rise is from serious buyers a price of $93 will be achieved in 3 days (at the rate of 6$ per day). Although, I did not expect the price to go up today, I still think the price will erode over weeks/months, I have, of course, been wrong before. I am trying to reconstruct the story on how the institutions play this stock from the following events: nov96-stock accumulating IBD acc/dist B...dec96 stock starts distributing with no negative news/outlook IBD-D stock price keeps falling....after hitting 57 it starts accumulating again in Jan 97 IBD-B... Q earnings out-growth stalled...stock price jumps 6$. Even in the most bullish scenario assume that the analysts knew that the growth for the Q will be stalled (that could explain why mean estimate was only 30c after making 31c last Q) and the current earning numbers and next Q forecast appeals to them, why would the institutions buy at this level and not wait for a better bargin? Anyone with a convincing story? M. Carter

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