Dear Distraught,
"What has happened to this board?"
IMO, nothing. We're just in one of those periods where there's not much news to talk about. Many here, probably most notably SteveG and Bernard, have done an excellent job of putting the fundamental picture on the table. Everybody knows and believes in the direction of the company. It's just that most here have been here for years now, so sooner or later you have to run out of things to say.
I'm one that kind of went short, I bought puts, thinking the stock was headed to 20 or so. It looked like it would last week before the rumors hit again and then the news of the meeting. But sometimes I can be tough on the company even when I'm long the stock, so I haven't been posting much not wanting it to look like I was being hard on the stock just because I was short. And remember, when we go short or take profits, we're just playing the stock and the chart, not the company. I don't think you'll find any of us here who wouldn't agree with you on a $100 stock out 18 months or so.
Another thing is, I think this meeting really has people confused (at least it does me). I'm under the impression that the analyst meeting was called so that the company could positivly spin the faster, deeper, and European, buildout that is expected to be announced soon. The fear is that the street will look at this negatively, ie deeper loses, more debt, worsening EBITDA, longer time to EBITDA breakeven, etc. So I don't know if the anticipated news before the meeting will be a release of these new plans, or something else, and the plans will be spelled out at the meeting. Thing is, I don't see how these plans and this meeting can do anything positive for the stock; isn't all this news already in the stock? Is there anybody here who isn't expected a faster, deeper build and a move into Europe? And the concerns about a longer time to EBITDA breakeven and deeper debt may be legitimate.
The point about LU COO at the meeting doesn't surprise me at all. After all, he'll be responsible for most of this buildout. He's probably just there to say "we're 100% behind this company", "the money will be available", and a little cheerleading like "WinStar will be the showcase for state of the art wireless broadband technology". No way I'd believe any of this LU buying WCII crap. Doesn't make sense.
The kicker is, I've been led to believe that some type of partnering arrangement will be announced before the new buildout plans. Again, to offset any negative views of the new plans. So, with the latest rumors and the announcement of the meeting, could something actually be up this time??? No idea, but I'm getting tired of getting sucked into these stories only to get burned. Only reason I'm holding onto my puts, I don't like these run ups based on no fundamental changes. I can guarantee you, if I bought my puts back, that would signal the exact top and the stock would crash from there. So my holding the puts is all that's holding the stock up for the rest of you guys :-)
Also, contrary to some, I'm not expecting any announcements on New Media.
So my bottom line is, I don't see anything on the new buildout plans or meeting that can help the stock. A lot of the run up is based on rumors and anticipation again, and that, we've seen, can come out fast. The real pain in my butt is that the dang meeting is called for the day before my options expire, so I'm probably sunk. Wish they'd have given me a week or two in between.
Later,
Steve |
