Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 232.37

-0.9%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: H James Morris who wrote (29352)	12/9/1998 12:53:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) of 164684

That is the key to this stock - lots and lots of churn among small investors (traders) on a very low amount of float. That is the ideal situation for those in control of a large number of shares - keep the feeding frenzy going by keeping the supply of stock tight. It is amazing how many shares are traded given the level of available float - just amazing. However, I think some of the reduced leverage combined with the 3:1 split come January will cause the dynamics to change dramatically. I would not be at all surprised if we find out latter that the large holders have been selling into this frenzy and go on to sell after the split. Maybe they will want to ride out the broader growth trend of ecommerce for a couple of years, but my guess is that they will take some profits along the way at strategic junctures. My bet is that Amazon will come off of the split riding on reports of a smash Christmas on-line shopping season. Sales will be up 350% or more and the stock will rise on the euphoria that things are just going to continue to get better and better. But then we will see the return to the normal buying season - the other 3 quarters of the year in which 50% of retail gift type sales usually happen. If I were going to guess a peak for this monster, I would guess it will pull back after the split but will rise up to new cumulative highs latter in the 1st qtr. Then by summer it will trend down to around the 160 level pre-split as some dumping of the stock increases the float and a bit of reality sets in. That's just a guess - so far the bulls have been right about the trend - maybe Amazon will become a $20 billion stock with no near-term prospects for profit. Propelling it forward at every increase in attention (hype factor) will be the shorts who can't help but run for cover right as things get crazy. A loaded neutron-bomb powder keg that has the float controllers ringing their hands with greed!

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