To All:
Great news! I'm not going to reveal my source yet until I have permission, but I have it 3rd handed straight (if you can call 3rd handed straight) from McKibben, AXC's CFO, that they're aiming for $1 per platter average revenue. I suppose that's taking into account Maxtor's sweetheart deal, their plans to possibly manufacture themselves, and just straight licensing. This was said by McKibben while on a public roadshow sponsored by one of the 3 brokerage firms touting AXC very recently, this very week I think.
That allows us to finally put some greater clarity into our own earnings projections. (1999's source of 600M platters) x (%market share of KM) x ($1 per platter hoped for revenue by AXC)= pretax revenue x (corporate tax rate)= after tax income to axc divided by # of shares outstanding = eps in 99!
Just to let you know, Pennsylvania Merchant Group estimated 99 eps of $11, that's right, $11 eps IF they had 100% market share at $1.50 a platter. So we take 2/3 of that $11(since AXC is gunning for $1 per platter vs PA's estimate of $1.50)= $7.30 eps in 99 possible from KM alone.
I'll post more later when I've got time this weekend.
IT ALL WORKS OUT TO A VERY REASONABLE EXPECTATION OF A TRIPLE DIGIT SHARE PRICE IN A FEW YEARS, BOYS AND GIRLS.
And if you really want to let your imagination run away and get excited with the POSSIBILITIES(I'm not promising, mind you!), what if they can achieve close to 100% share, DST takes off, digital tv somehow kicks in, etc etc etc, eps does go over $5 and heads toward $10, and the market loves AXC like few others, well then why not a pe multiple of 50 or more, with a resulting share price of $500?
Obviously many things would have to go right, but what I'm trying to do with all of this is not get scared out of this or leave the party EARLY! So say it never reaches triple digits, I'll not be sad if as long as I can ride it up to near the top without impatiently jumping out at a measly $15 or 25.
The more I look at it, the more I think I won't have to buying any other stock, or selling any AXC, for some time to come, unless nuclear war or severe depression or stock market meltdown takes hold.
Just food for thought-- and for wild dreams!!!! |
