To all:
My firm, as most of you know, is Qualcomm's largest institutional shareholder...so my perspective and biases are obviously in alignment with this investment decision. I reiterate this because I am strenuously attempting to remain objective and factual, so the reiteration of our economic agenda is part of my attendant obligation to other Forum participants. This being said, you all should consider the following:
/1/ The disclosures of Monday and Tuesday represent a clear inflection point in the 3G debate.
/2/ With all due respect, I disagree with Clark (an infrequent event, I might add) that the ITU would abandon W-CDMA due to a "minor" IPR conflict. I believe that the ITU has simply confirmed by its words and threatened actions what I, Qualcomm and most other knowledgeable industry participants have been saying for well over a year. Simply put, Qualcomm's IPR position is central to deployment of a commercially acceptable mobile CDMA standard and that no such standard can go forward without a bonafide license agreement with Qualcomm.
/3/ Ericsson's chip rate "concession" should be as shocking to Ericsson supporters as Bill Clinton's mea culpa regarding Monica. It should be plain, simple and obvious to all objective observers that Ericsson has BEEN LYING ABOUT ITS PATENT POSITION VIS-A-VIS QUALCOMM. If Ericsson possessed the W-CDMA IPR that it claims (a) the ITU would not be taking its current position and (b) (much more damning) Ericsson WOULD NOT, AND COULD NOT, BE COMPELLED TO COMPROMISE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF ITS PLANNED W-CDMA STANDARD. Ericsson has been lying to analysts, investors and, again most damning, its customers.
/4/ Competition, not governmental agencies, will ultimately drive the standards outcome. It's really pretty simple when you think about it. DoCoMo MUST stay competitive with DDI/IDO. The latter could deploy a high-date rate system capable of 1.2MBS by the year 2000. As it now stands, DoCoMo cannot respond. This isn't an issue of politics, or what Ericsson wants, or what Qualcomm wants...this is an issue of a major telecom operator staring a huge competitive deficit in the face and wondering what it can do and must do.
The handwriting is on the wall for those who are literate. Ericsson must either cut a deal with Qualcomm, buy Qualcomm or face an inexorable loss in competitive position and marketshare. Meanwhile, the growing possibility/probability of a DoCoMo defection is hanging over Ericsson's corporate head like an AXE (pun intended). The cards are now on the table and it's a high stakes pot...should be very interesting.
Best regards,
Gregg |
