Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC)

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To: jackie who wrote (3806)	12/10/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: Rod Copeland	Read Replies (2) of 5504

Jack, My personal impressions only: 1) The current situation is worse than the mid-80's because I am still in the current one. The other one is behind me. 2) This has been a deeper and more protracted downturn. Mid-80's only lasted six months or so. We are at the one year mark on this one and have just now reached the "pain threshold" which will speed up market reaction. The mid-80's had the pain threshold kick in much earlier. 3) I expect oil prices to be much more volatile from now on. Large price swings due to the market being so sensitive. It comes from the pure volumes that are required now. Our over supply can be sucked up in much shorter time frames than previous overages. Look for volatile but overall escalating prices. 4) When this happened in the mid-80's I had just sold some production to Cigna Insurance Co. and was "fat and happy". I didn't shut in a single well. This time, I have shut in over 80% of my wells and am selling assets to keep the doors open at my business. I operate 43 wells in the Abilene, Texas area. We are producing seven wells today. 5) I agree with a replaceable reserve theory which advocates higher prices evolve when the market realizes we are no longer replacing what we are using. When the growth rate of reserves slows and the market realizes that we will be drawing from the finite number of barrels remaining, the price will move up rapidly. We don't really have to have a shortage of barrels, just the knowledge that the shortage is going to happen or can happen. That time is rapidly approaching us. I just hope to still be selling crude when it gets here. 5) So now I am hoping to go drill a few more wells while the price is right. I want to have some reserves to sell. Some people want to try to buy the reserves now too. That's a good plan, also. That's my take on the comparison from my point of view only. Its supposed to snow here tonight... that means its finally getting getting cold. Maybe it will help some on the prices. Rod

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