Stephen, I continue to maintain that several of the technologies that are being ballyhooed today as "The" next great technology, are nothing more than a stopgap, and 56k is the biggiest joke of all.
If history is a precursor to the future, then 56 k is doomed from the start. What do I mean? Look at any half assed technology prior. That's right, half assed. Any one remember the 386 SX chip? 16 bit one way, and 32 bit the other. Sound familar? What was it always referred to as, "The crippled chip." When looking at the 56k technology, same thing, high speeds in one direction, and 28.8 in the other. Whoopty doo!
The irony is in the fact that about 50% of the ISP's will fall by the wayside because they can't afford to embrace this new "would be" technology. All the trade magazines will present this chip as the "second coming", only to criticize it as soon as everyone has bought into it, and there is a new technology to champion in. Sorry I don't buy it. Does that mean it won't be successful? I don't know? I can't remember one technology from the 386sx to the Cadilac engine that ran on 4-6-8 cylinders, that succeeded.
Did they sell any? Sure.
But it was nothing more than a half assed stop gap measure, built around a half assed technology.
None of the above, even takes into account that the underlying infrasturcture is the problem. What. is everyone is to spend millions embracing a technology, just so they can speed up, to wait in gridlock? I DON'T THINK SO!!!! That's like saying I'm buying a Indy Car to beat the morning rush hour. I DON'T THINK SO!!!!
ISDN, also is a just a stop gap, as is ADSL. Look at the root of the problem and you will find that there are no solutions being offered, just stop gaps, with short sighted thinking. They serve no better purpose then to fuel research, off the proceeds of dumb asses like us, that buy into this crapola. Western mans fast route to Nirvana. We await "Virtual Reality", yet we have been buying into it for years, we live it.
To me, 56k is nothing more than planned obsolence, a big "to do" over nothing. If you want to get to work faster you don't have to buy a
Indy car, just travel a different path then the rest of the crowd. What I am looking for are companies that aligned with the infrastructure, techology, and financial muscle to create these new alternate routes.
WCOM and GTE both would fit the above parameters. Either one could create a "business channel" type Internet, an alternative secondary Internet that would alleviate the girdlock. I'm also looking for companies that can build the routers and equipment that would address the "junctions" or "interchanges" between different Internet Channels.
Since this is an investment bulletin board, I'd be buying USRX on promise, but shorting it on the deliivery. And since this is the FTEL thread, I like the idea that Frank & Co. have not hinged FTEL around one technology, and are entreprenurail enough to stay ahead of the crowd. Look at the past, and you will see the future in FTEL. Just a year ago Franklin introduced the Hurricane 155. The critics panned it, said that it was not compatible with anything. That was yesterday, but Frank now sits with the next Hurricane, saying, you want it, Hah, we have had it for over a year, it's perfected guys. Now he's got the Cyclone and it's hybrid child, the Tornado. Without letting any secrets out of the bag, all I can say is that, if the Cyclone reduced the ISP's cost by 2/3rds, the Tornado will really get the competition" twisting" (pun intended) their heads.
To many of you that have just recenly joined the FTEL story, you need ot understand that the adversity and rejection of the Hurricane product, by the industry a year ago, is what spawned the Franklin you know today. It will also help you to understand what you own. When the Hurricane was panned, Frank thought the hell with them, I'll create my own markets, and the FNET idea was born. Today, FNET is more then he'd ever dreamed, not only does it have a self sustaing life of it's own, but it has blossomed into a vitual pump of cash, and a sponge for FTEL equipment. This all started with the Hurricane 155, and I can remember the day that I was talking to Frank about the bad critique focusing on the Hurricane's incompatibility issues, and Frank said "their idiots, I'm a year ahead of them, and what they don't know is how we can move big chunks of video and audio data, and that is the future, and I have it now." That's when I realized what he was talking about, and the Hurricane transformed into the Cyclone, and now he's beta testing another transformation dubbed the Tornado.
If your wondering what this all has to do with the 56k chip, it doesn't in the normal context. What it does have to do with is that Frank remains a visionary and has had the foresight to utilize whatever "stopgap" technologies come and go as he pursues his quest to the ultimate goal. In the meantime, techonology catches up to him, and we the shareholders benefit. How many of you even knew that the Hurricane existed?
So as the industry buys into planned obsolence, Frank's supposedly ovsolete technologies become the standard to which the industry is moving. How ironical.
Hey, only in America. What a country!
RB |
