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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: orkrious who wrote (20375)12/10/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (2) of 25960
 
The industry briefly saw a 1000/year rate and it gagged, so the full capacity is not a realistic value to use. I had a clever line about requiring litho machines in elementary schools to sustain such a level. Also power and speed of new lasers, larger wafers etc are
factors against the need for -more- foundries. To assert otherwise is akin to believing the SIA's "uninterrupted 21.3% growth" model espoused in November 1995.
Service revenue per laser should not increase much, unless the cost reduction program is a failure. The goal is for more dependable instruments requiring less downtime and less maintenance cost.

The growth should be viewed as a pure upgrade of the current volume of fabs. Devices will require fewer and smaller chips for the same task. So as the inner layers are required to be .25 or better, DUV will be the light of choice.

Competition may be advancing, although no significant inroads as yet. However a competitive cost solution at the low end may result from Komatsu and Lambda.
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