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Technology Stocks : 2000 Date-Change Problem: Scam, Hype, Hoax, Fraud
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To: Contra Guy who wrote (949)12/10/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce  Read Replies (1) of 1361
 
re: the problem with predictions

>The problem with these kind of predictions is how do you know
>that a recession was "generated" by Y2K problems? Okay, if the
>wheels completely fall off the economy it will be obvious, but
>suppose there are few disruptions but a downturn happens anyway?

I think it will be obvious. We can easily blame Y2K for a USA recession if any of the following occur:

(1) Enough companies with old accounts receivable software lock-up
causing significant corporate bankruptcies.

(2) Any extended domestic liquidity crisis caused by banking/bond/
equity market software crashes. (don't think this will happen)

(3) Critical infrastructure crashes hard (such as FAA or railroad
container tracking).

(4) Significant numbers of electrical power generation plants trip
off-line for extended periods of time.

(5) I-trade gets significantly disrupted by currency exchange/foreign
bank failures or International telecom problems.

(6) Any critical commodity shortage resulting from
distribution/processing/refining embedded system problems.

(7) Extended domestic telecom problems, (don't think this will
happen.)

Seriously, if it ends up not being obvious, Y2K did not cause it. And it is not necessarily the "end of the world" if the above problems occur.

You're very correct in stating that alot of companies are taking this very seriously. That's why I have faith in them. The smart ones will buy out what's left of the dumb ones. In the long run, this is a good thing. Short-term, this produces a reduction in GDP, AKA recession.
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