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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Peter Connolly who wrote (24696)	12/10/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) of 42771

Russian Business Several years go I carried three computers to Russia because I wouldn't trust anything being shipped there actually arriving. When I got off the airplane (Aeroflot) with all the other Russian shuttle traders (Russians that travel abroad and come back with goods to resell), I just went through customs like anyone else. These computers were going for use in schools. About the only thing that interested passport control was my visa for travel to Siberia. My computers were dwarfed by some of the goods coming back with the new Russians. On one other trip I met with the BOD of the Magnitogorsk Metals Combinat. They run every enterprise in a city of 450,000 and had a central role in winning WWII by producing Russian tanks. The company had no cost accounting system. It couldn't determine how much it cost to produce a ton of steel or an acre of potatoes. Sixty percent of its work force was being used to maintain capital stock. A corp of key skilled workers kept the whole operation running. So much for "socialist" command and administer type central planning. As with every other enterprise I have ever known, you have to find the people who really want your system and let them figure out how to get it through the corrupt import/export channels. I do not envy anybody looking for business in Russia today. The country is on the verge of hyper-inflation and further economic collapse. The elite is corrupt and incompetent. It steals everything it gets its hands on. Nothing can be done with the economy until these bloodsuckers are removed from power. Incidentally most Westerners get as far as Moscow and think they have seen Russia. The members of the Russian elite also congregate in Moscow. These are the Russians they usually meet. I think Yeltsin is going to try to find an excuse to fire Primakov and then I think Yeltsin will be removed from office in a revolution of sorts either mounted by the forces in parliament, the military, or the interior ministry or some combination of the above. This will probably come to a head with riots taking place throughout the country as people demand food and heat in sub-zero temperatures --- you will see frozen and emaciated children on TV. In these circumstances you will need very good Russian friends to even get out of Russia alive. The US Russian policy has already collapsed (Clinton sided with Yeltsin and never developed a social democratic alternative --- the Truman administration understood how to do this better, but then again that was before the red scare purged everyone from government that understood how to deal with Communists) and I expect we will have another Russian crisis with similar effects to the default of last Summer in February or next Spring. The collapse of the Yeltsin regime is bound to produce a stock market echo. Stick to Europe! Go after business in Milan. The Italians are far more interesting customers. ================ Do you think Y2K will knock out that Scandinavian Netware 2.15 server or will Novell have to wait for lightning to strike?

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