Tom, since you opened up the conspiracy theory door, let me put in my two cents on the oil situation:
I think I agree that there is some sort of market share play going on. Since Saudi and the rest of the ME are the low cost producers, they do not like losing market share and making less money at low oil prices too.
The events that led to low oil prices may have been just random, but OPEC's reaction recently makes one think they are up to something. Perhaps they are orchestrating a slow response to the situation (witness the disagreements and lack of urgency with OPEC's decisions recently) in order to maximize the "shut-in" time for higher cost oil. With what looks to be a 2-3 mbpd drawdown in world wide supplies currently, I don't see OPEC "flooding the world" with oil. I see OPEC making the necessary adjustments and rather ambivalent if it takes a while to get oil prices up (they win either way, higher prices or less marginal production). I do not think that we are in for multi-year low oil prices, but the perception that we may see that is as good as reality for reduction of marginal production and exploration in the near term.
I think both Exxon and Mobil buy oil as well as produce it, so they do not lose as much as one thinks. Plus a low oil price environment will make a merger more anti-trust proof. After the merger, Exxon-Mobil will enjoy reduced costs and more profits from what they are increasingly doing more of, refining and retailing. To me that is the basic goal of the merger. The ME has the low cost reserves, that won't change, and they won't let western oil companies own any of the reserves, but they may let them develop the reserves.
I tend to believe Richard Rainwater and think that oil production and demand are getting much tighter. When we reach almost true supply/demand balance, I see the ME making lots of money on $30 oil (with a higher market share) and I see Exxon-Mobil as making most of their money drilling for it, refining it and retailing it.
Finally, the return of higher oil prices will probably bring on new higher cost oil production again, but with demand per day getting higher and higher every year, marginal oil producers may not have a significant market share (especially if Big Oil has committed to developing the low cost ME, and not other higher cost places in the world).
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