My concern about the Cambrian sale relates to my gut instinct that you NEVER help a major competitor become stronger. Moreover, this is the little guy helping the big guy. Maybe this sale is a precondition to LU buying 15% of NN, but I would think LU would prefer NRTL didn't have Cambrian either.
Ed ---
I was in a meeting today with Sun Microsystems' CTO, Norman Koo, and he would disagree with you 100%. He has to be one of the most brilliant men I've ever met, and certainly one of the wisest, and he said that approaching the world as if you have to protect your technology from competitors is old thinking. We're moving into a new world. One with open standards, open interfaces, open protocols. If by cooperating you can bring your products to a wider market, then everyone wins. Nortel has the channels for optical fiber and by using Cambrian's DWDM, NN will have direct interfaces for all their 36170s.
Could NN/Cambrian compete against Nortel or Lucent in this arena? It's doubtful. Could Cambrian IPO and compete alone? If you think so, look at Ciena. What were the options? Buy Cambrian outright or sell it off. Does it matter that Nortel competes against Lucent? Not really. Cambrian and Lucent have demonstrated their systems are interoperable, so anywhere Nortel goes, Lucent's products will be on speaking terms. Again, a win-win.
If you'd been to NGN'98 in Washington, D.C., you'd realize the entire world is going to need DWDM. The demand boggles the mind. No one company can do it all. Not even in McGinn's wildest dreams.
At any rate, I'm seeing more evidence of Koo's vision of the 21st century --- and I like it.
Pat |
