It's true, Mardy - you can now get a steady dose of Tero Kuittinen both from Jon's site and from
osaketieto.com
In the latter, there's a wealth of additional information on Nokia and Ericsson, plus other Nordic stocks. Lists of recommendations, inside stuff that's often news for me, etc.
If anyone feels like giving me a Christmas present - sign up to Osaketieto (the English version is still free) and tell them Tero made you do it!
Yes, that was shameless hucksterism. But I have no other options. I'm trying to turn into a global brand and it's every bit as tough as you might expect.
What is the subject of most intense speculation in Finland today is Ericsson's pessimistic -99 outlook. By saying they fear they don't meet their long term growth target next year they are apparently warning about less than 20% growth. Some analysts have taken this as a sign that the new phone platform may not debut as soon as was expected. God help them if they have to limp until next summer with their old line-up. This could be a major extra boost for Nokia's prospects - the pricing pressure on the current models will be significantly lower if there is no serious competition from Ericsson during the first six months of the year.
Motorola is suddenly starting to look like a contender as well. They might be the only major company to bring out a novel platform during the first half of 1999. If the V series delivers, Motorola could make substantial gains at Ericsson's expense. The problem is Ericsson's contention that buyers are shifting en masse to cheaper models. Is this a fact or a smokescreen to excuse their performance? If it's a genuine trend, it could spell trouble for V series, which is a Startac-type premium product, priced perhaps twice as high as 61xx currently is.
Nokia has been sheltered from pricing pressure throughout 1998 and has been able to build up the 61xx production to the staggering 10 million unit range. If they feel threatened next spring, they can easily afford to introduce 30-50% price cuts while still maintaining decent margins. It will be interesting to see whether Motorola can still command a premium for its new products or whether consumers are going downmarket and/or perhaps don't regard Motorola as a premium brand anymore.
Tero
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