re posts about ASTM/some thoughts about biotech
(after reading posts 1693, 1695, 1704, 1711, 1714
I decided to rant a little bit...)
It seems to me that the lowest price you
will see on Aastrom near term is 2 1/2...
basically the price it was chugging along
at before it got hyped. So what do you do
with it now that it is dead again... I'd
say that if you got in during the hype and
are underwater, take your loss and move on--
because you are just as likely to "get your
money back" on any other sexy micro biotech
as this one.
On the other hand, you can always look at it
as an investment--I like to say that my
portfolio is full of investments (--trades
gone bad, heh heh.)
I'm certainly not a biotech expert, but the
sector--especially the small and micro caps
may be terribly undervalued...that is my
guess. Certainly the idea of patient specific
genetic cell therapy is just about as cool
an idea as you can find...and the recent news
sounds like a breakthrough too, but of course
all of this is probably being worked on by plenty of
other companies. For example...another interesting
company I own shares in is Targeted Genetics, TGEN
which seems to have a promising way of generating large
numbers of patient specific T-cells. They also are
doing some intresting things for CF.
Anyway, I guess if I had a little advice it would be
to avoid things getting hyped--unless you have a really
good chance of being there really early (like if you
are golfing buddies with this tmex fellow). Otherwise
just sit back, relax and watch the show...then let the
stock come to you. They always do.
Finally, I guess it is nice now and then to tell folks
a little about your investments/trading, so they can judge
if you are full of crap etc. I counted up my stocks the
other day, I found that I have eleven microcap biotech
companies...which come to about one third of my investments,
the rest is cash. So I am about as bearish on this market
as a person can get...but I like a sector. If the market
tanks sometime in the next few years (again) you will
see micro biotech as a sector go down another 50%, yup.
But if you can pick the right stock--say you get a few
ten-baggers, you will be okay.
Another possibility is that these micro biotech companies
have become whores for the pharmaceutical industry, they
get used up (in this case for their brains) and then thrown
away. That is something I worry a little bit about.
But it doesn't keep me up at night.
Happy trading,
happy investing,
--Mike
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