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Technology Stocks : AOL, now I get it
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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (310)1/18/1997 4:49:00 PM
From: yard_man   of 496
 
James,

Was this really news? I thought this was well known for the past few days. My own personal opinion is that the suits, of which there are currently a number, are not a real threat -- it's the problems that the fostered the suits that spell trouble for AOL. AOL is vastly behind and they don't have a clue how far behind they are with this flat-rate pricing. Yes, there's no denying that 8 million subscribers at 20 bucks a pop is a large monthly cash flow. Question is: how long are those 8 million customers going to want to continue paying for what they're getting, i.e. a busy signal?

It may be that a 75% increase in the number of modems are completely insufficient for the current number of subscribers. Here's what I think will happen -- some folks will get pissed and leave. This will moderate AOL's problems a little while they upgrade as fast as they can. This breather will allow AOL to have a press release to the effect that the problem's in hand, thank you customers for your patience, we look forward to the future, da da da ... Customers will start coming back and new customers will come and the problem will happen again in short order, because they have no real clue how to forecast the amount of usage engendered by flat-rate pricing.
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