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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Michael G. Potter who wrote (9515)12/11/1998 10:41:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (1) of 16960
 
Thanks for the answer and thanks in advance for the summary that you'll post.

I'd rather be conservative with my estimates and let the company beat them, than aggressive and have the company fail them. 15 million units would be about 5x current unit sales and is unrealistic in my opinion. By far business machines will not be using 3Dfx cards. 3Dfx's market IMO is the home entertainment market. Implicit in my previous post, was that every home pc sold is an entertainment unit. We both know that is not true as there are people who use them serious purposes. But my guess is that will be balanced by the few small businesses who'd buy a 3Dfx card. Looking at it this way, you'll see that 15 million units is 37.5% of the home market, and that is the kind of penetration that I do not see for now. My target for TDFX in '99 is $24. This my not excite those who bought in high 20s, but is 50% return from current levels and that is good enough for me. I will revise this target as time goes on.

Cheers,
Sun Tzu
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