INDEX UPDATE
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The VIX is approaching 30, and the last 2 times the VIX hit 30, it worked as BUY SIGNAL. Please keep in mind that the SELL & BUY signals on the VIX vary.
My BUY signal is targeting MONDAY's lows. As I have always indicated, news/fundamental changes, is significant enough, can over-ride/skew the technicals. The impeachment hearings next week could possible skew my BUY SIGNAL, buy delaying it until something significant comes out of those hearings.
Does anyone have a schedule of how the hearings will proceed/when significant news will come out from the hearings?
If CLINTON is impeached, there should be a knee-jerk reaction to the downside. If significant news is delayed/extended the market could start forming chart formations motivated by waiting for news such as a TRIANGLE/PENNANT/FLAG/etc - something like a hold pattern in the charts. If such formations do occur, they probably will occur near the bottom of this pullback.
I am not bullish to this market, just anticipating a short-term/so-so rebound of about 50%. Market internals are weakening, and other negative technical signs have developed.
In a earlier update, I mentioned that if the DOW breaks the various supports in the 8630-8750 range, such would minimize the rebound. After further thought, I feel that the support made by the 200 day moving average would be major key to hold. If that support was to break, such would be a major negative to the market and should minimize the forthcoming rebound to probably less than 50%. Eyeballing the charts the 200 day moving average is slightly above 8700 - can anyone give a more accurate figure. thanks.
Seeya |
