Ed,
No, Haven't sold the shares for the down payment yet.
Bought at 102 in Sept, Wrote Jan 130 cov. calls, will
get called away (hopefully). That I plan to use for down
payment on home.
As Sonki said earlier, I have a heavy concentration on
MSFT long positions and if it hits $250 in 1999, I probably
can retire by paying off the mortgage and leaving funds for
kids education. Wouldn't that be sweet.
But $250 in 99 is unrealistic, I am not doing any planning on
such a price. As I saw in July, when the PE gets richer (60+),
Microsoft executives start talking the stock down and thus I
expect a max PE of 60 to 72 next in 99. With max trailing EPS
of about $3.00 sometime in late 99, I can see how 72*3 => 216
can be reached. But I don't see 250. Also, when times are bad
(like when the dow hit 7400 3 months ago), the PE on MSFT also
comes down to as low as 45 or so, that is why I think there is
risk of the stock touching 110 again in the first half of the
year. If it does hit ~110, I plan to buy more.
[I am pretty honest in my opinions, I have no ax to grind,. I am
not a wall street analyst, don't work for someone else's money.
3 months ago, the trailing PE was 45 when Dow was way down, I felt
the stock was undervalued at 45 PE. Now at 68 PE, it is getting to
be far too rich and is subject more short term downside risk]
johnd |
