BillyG,
The DVD market starts to take off in Taiwan. Yes.
How many units in 1998? in 1999? 2000?
We don't know. But we have been told the units to be sold
in the whole Europe. about 150KU in 1998. 300KU in 1999, and 500kU in 2000.
How about USA? it is best at close to 800KU in 1998,perhaps
1 to 2 MU in 1999. It probably will take off in 2000.
Therefore all the news on DVD market is overblown.
The real market for consumer video today, to the end of this year,
to the end of next year, is SuperVCD, VCD, and DVD. Exactly in that order.
With about 16 million units to be divided among the VCD(The incumbent),
the SuperVCD(the Rising new star) and
DVD (a distant 3rd cousin to be looked at after Jan. 2000),
it is very clear DVD probably will be probably less than 50 thousand
unit in 1998, 100KU in 1999, etc., ??? in 2000.
The SuperVCD is shipping at a rapid pace
with 20%+ in quantities and 90%+ in profits.
Therefore it is obvious that the battleground is in SuperVCD in China.
I think CUBE could probably hold the SuperVCD market. The decision
to go after the Divicom advantage is a right one.
Steve |
