All,
Some very interesting posts in the last 24 hours. On the one hand we have Dennis's conversation with Lev relating the mood during the analyst visit. Very upbeat. We also have Robert's post relaying a conversation with IR indicating that 1/27 requirements should be met without a problem and the CFO/COO announcement will be well received. On the other we have a point from that same conversation with IR indicating OEMs have not received batteries from NI and won't until January. We also have a post reminding us of this nagging variable conversion issue hanging out there. My question to everyone, and this is not rhetorical, is 'How long do we wait?'.
The upside potential is, IMHO, indisputable. Fred's numbers demonstrate the possibilities, regardless of how precise they are. It's obvious however that the investment community does not currently share his assessment of the chance of failure. Lev is upbeat, but you have to be an eternal optimist to run a startup and be able to go to work every morning. IR is the same group that said everything was on track for September (1997) production weeks before the CC were Cal indicated they would probably slip into 1998 (he forgot to mention he would be gone), so anything, positive at least, out of IR can't be taken too seriously. We have some serious inside money (Berg, Lev) who selfishly can't let this thing collapse, and yet as a start-up there primary concern is survival, not shareholder value.
I could go on and on, but my point (and there is one) is that IMHO there will not be a contract on 1/7, when we are asked to approve the issuance of a potentially unlimited number of shares. That vote is the whole point of the shareholder's meeting, and it really can't not pass (double negative?). Assuming that to be true, and the only official news we get is the announcement of a new CFO/COO, how traumatic will that be to the share price as 1/27 approaches? How will each of you determine how long to hold? I would appreciate the views of all willing to share their thought process on this. Thanks in advance. |
