<Will the results from Friday affect the market ?>
Howard,
IMO, Clinton and the bull market are joined at the hip, and right now, I think we will see a downward synergy between the two. (Meaning the troubles of one will reinforce the troubles of the other.)
With or without Clinton surviving, I see the market going down significantly, and for a prolongued period. The worldwide overcapacity problems we have in commodities and basic industries will move up the manufacturing chain, and into services, and deflationary pressures will intensify.
Deflation and loose credit have benefitted US consumers (and the bull market) in the short term, by allowing them to go on a shopping spree for anything from cars to houses, computers etc.. , but this will not last since 1. credit with consumers will soon reach its limits (negative savings rate), 2. firms will intensify lay offs to counter the squeeze on profits due to declining prices, which will affect sentiment.
(I've been bearish on the US market since June of 1998.)
To change topics, I believe Collin Powell has it made to be elected President in 2000. (He doesn't seem to like political games, does not hold extreme views that I know of, is black, has relevant military experience, seems like a man of characher, and apparently, does not fit the profile of a potential dictator.)
I don't know the man that well and would like to have opinions of others on this thread. (Daniel ?)
Regards, JBL
|
