Semi equipment makers moved up - 3 MONTHS ahead of my expectations also (if market hadn't trashed itself, maybe their move wouldn't have happened so soon). So - given "early" run ups, I would be concerned about Novellus, Applied, LRCX in spite of takeover rumors, ASYT, and BRKS (less concern for KLAC and ETEC). But, baby, ain't no way DUV sources aren't going to rock and roll. Few if any manufacturing groups will want a second flavor of DUV lite bulb. Cymer is the encumbent, and while Cymer could screw it up, they are doing just fine to date (from my direct personal experience). Apparently, few appreciate the magnitude of this advantage, given discussion on this thread. So, I am willing to endure a dip here and there in this stock. Just don't think TA matters a wit on CYMI.
If joe semi wants to add capacity, that move will be skewed more than ever to cost reduced technology (DUV). Just like every other bust in the semi biz - result is acceleration to finer geometries.
Sorry for radical outburst, but I am indebted to you and this excellent thread, and trying to make a return.
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