MHS, I think 30 mln shares is more accurate, but let's try 40 mln on for size. How bad would such a doomsdayers scenareo hurt us? Here's a modified set of estimates.
50% profits on 1mln cellphone batteries/mo from Hanil JV
---$20mln/40mln sh = ----------------------------$0.50/sh
100% profits on 1mln cellphone batt/mo by Valence on identical
Arcotronics line-----$40mln/40mln sh----------$1.00/sh
50% profits of additional production line from Hanil JV
-----------------------------------------------------$0.19/sh
90% profits on the army's $15,000 OICW (objective individual combat weapon) that an Alliant Tech spokesman stated that Valence will build batteries for, to replace the now-standard M16 rifle. No telling when govt will announce. These numbers are no more than a wild guess.
Est 300,000 rifles x $200/batt x 33% profit = $19.8 mln/30mln
-----------------------------------------------------$0.38/sh
50% of other Alliant/Valence JV profits on Seal propulsion, combat vest batteries etc.
very rough estimate 50% of $30mln--------------------------------------------$0.38/sh
Possible laminate sales to GM Delphi automotive and royalties for SLI (starting lights ignition) batteries replacing conventional lead-acid batteries on certain GM models-----$0.22/sh
Possible laminate sales to GM Dephi for Vehicle propulsion batteries------------------------------------------$0.22/sh
2.5 mln laptop batteries from line 1 at $75 each x 33% profit/40mln--------------------------------------$1.56/sh
10 mln unnamed application batt at $6 each x 40% profit/40mln ----------------------------------------------------$0.50/sh
25,000 unnamed application batt at $1000 each x 33% 30mln
----------------------------------------------------$0.19/sh
Estimated total earnings at 40 mln sh dilution---$5.25/sh
Possible license agreements with such companies as Mitsubishi, Sanyo, Sony or Matsushita etc. were not included. I have heard estimates that revenue from license agreements could exceed earnings from Valence's own production.
Some related links
exchange2000.com
exchange2000.com
exchange2000.com
exchange2000.com
Applying a multiple of 20 times earnings would indicate a $105 share price with a worst-case 40 million share dilution, with the exception of license agreements, which could add significantly earnings.
For me, it's more than enough to continue owning as many shares as I can afford and reason to continue accumulating, especially in the single digits. I continue to rate Valence's chance of failure at less than 0.1 %
Another possibility not mentioned by the naysayers is that a portion of these profits will likely be used to expand and buy more equipment, reducing the earinings per share.
Of course, a fast growing company may deserve a PE of 30 or 40, making earnings plowback a moot point in view of the effect on share price.
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