*** OT response ***
I don't follow you on what was happening with Doug and BAANF, but it isn't that important.
Does Doug Crook have a good fundamental understanding of these companies? Which companies? ORCL - somewhat. Others? I don't know. As I mentioned to you in private mails it didn't take much to call a BAANF decline off $40 and a BMCS run up from $30. Does that imply a great fundamental understanding on his part. No. But it appears he is closer to the technology than a lot of analysts. Coming from IBM is a boon and an issue. IBM doesn't really believe that there are any other technology companies besides IBM. And if it doesn't run on an IBM mainframe it can't be for real. So SAP with its roots on S370 and having continued to support the IBM mainframe business seems like a sure thing to Doug. Well Doug, there is a lot more going on in the world than SAP and IBM. Yes, the vast majority of large companies run SAP and they do it on IBM. No question. But the times they are a changing and just like M&D and D&B before SAP, the inability to migrate a large non-web enabled product set to the web and make it perform, coupled with difficulty in adding functionality like front-office to their already burdensome application architecture will allow companies like ORCL to regain marketing share in apps. Yes, I believe Doug understands this.
<thoughts on other winners in this area>
What area? Its a big world out there and ORCL covers a lot of territory with their product set.
I like SUNW. The other UNIX entrants all have problems. DEC is done. HP is clueless. SGI doesn't sell well outside its original market. NCR ranks right up there with HP on cluelessness. SQNT has to wait for INTC/HP to really bring out a 64 bit chip. Pyramid went to Europe, never to be heard from again. And SUNW is SO MUCH MORE than just an OS. Good hardware. Good storage. Good software. Great relationships with channel partners. More 3rd party relationships than anyone except IBM.
I like TLC for all the same reasons that Trader Dave like them. Ask him for more info. They have several categories locked up and the content and market share make them a 'gorilla' in their space. If ORCL bought TLC and modified the content presentation to web enable it, they could put the Oracle logo in front of every kid from age 4 on in the schools for the next decade. That is how IBM won the wars in the 60's. They donated gear to the colleges. A kid who sees the ORCL logo on Reader Rabbit, delivered via an NC in the elementary education tech center will remember the name. (sorry for the aside here - I would just like SOMEONE to wake up and see the opportunity here to grab really young eyes rather than MSFT).
I like APLX. Anything that can do spreadsheets and wordprocessing via the web that gets me OFF MSFT as a computing platform is cool. Plus APLX has other app and tool offerings, all web enabled, that make them a killer takeover candidate.
In middleware I used to like BEAS, but the real opportunity is a layer higher in the stack with a company called NEON. Application layer interconnectivity is very profitable. Companies can't do this themselves and once it is in place, it never comes out.
For more, PM me.
ttf |
