HiTech<Most of the indicators I watch are telling me that the market is near a top. Internals
seem to be imploding. Weekly indicators I use are beginning to show weakness. Many
reasonable posts point to impending drop.
Yet - I went long on Friday.
Go figure. ;-)>
By any chance did you go long on one or more internuts? I am seeing quite a bit of strength in them right now. For example, note some circumstantial evidence close to home: long time, very adamant, and even bitter bears on the Amazon thread have either closed their shorts, gone long for the first time, ceased to trade the sector entirely, or are at least reducing their vitriole.
Is this a sign of the ultimate bubble, or is it just another sign of strength in this sector? As an FA internut bull who remains astonished by the fabulous behavior of these stocks, I still find it very difficult to interpret this change in sentiment as being anything else but another sign of sign of strength. Here's why.
All indications are that this strong etail holiday season will blow away 4Q results for the etailers, particularly AMZN and probably EBAY. AOL, YHOO, and XCIT also now have important etail offerings which should bear them good fruit. These numbers should further fuel the fire under internet infrastructure providers, most notably INKT. Independently, the heat is on high for broadband stocks such as ATHM and BRCM.
Barring actual impeachment or some highly untoward development overseas, try as I might I cannot really fathom any kind of serious inet correction until after 4Q earnings reports, virtually regardless of larger stock market trends. Moreover, one would think that the momemtum these reports fuel would carry over until 1Q99 reports, even if the normal midseason "mini-correction" in the inets takes place. It is interesting to note that the mini-correction this season may now be over. If so, it appears to be particularly mild, with leading net stocks falling just 20% from their highs, rather than 30% in other recent quarters. (While these drops may not seem like "mini-corrections" to most, when a stock has doubled its price in say three months, I would consider it such).
Am I all wet? Any additional views, particularly regarding current internut TA, would be most appreciated.
Rob
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