Lee; That was a well thought out post, the only one I would drop
out as a broad market indicator is flex, her market cap is just to
small to fit in with the others or make even a ripple to the over
all liquid ability of the market cap.
It's odd that the Tech sector in general is the only sector showing
strength, and it's also not healthy, in the long run some one has to
buy this stuff and if the wealth of the rest of market is in decline
with hamburger flipping jobs holding up the employment numbers,
just who do they think will be buying these toys next year.
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They say inflation is under control, but they are looking in some
rear view mirror and running that forward, already I see some
of the tech toys, and cars going up in price.
Not long ago I was looking at digital cameras thinking well these
things will do like the rest of tech, and be better and cheaper
in the near future, well they pushed the inventory out and
digital cameras have doubled in price before they have even
caught on good.
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KO complained about the high dollar hurt profits, what a crock of
bull, the dollar has been in a free fall for almost 3 months,
and you can't have that without inflation soon to follow,
well it may take several months but now any rise in the dollar
will tempt foreign investors to get out of our blue chip stocks.
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The market looks one way to us, but it looks all together like
a bear market to foreigners, if they own MSFT and bought it with
yen in Sept. then MSFT hasn't done so good for them.
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I warned over 6 mos ago to keep an eye on the dollar, as once it
falls that sets up a situation were we have to pay more for
imports and like it or not we import more than we sell.
The catch 22 , ( or second stage ) is when and if the dollar
starts back up, then foreign investors that were trapped into
holding our stocks will want to make an exit.
In spite of the rise in the market since Sept..
the second top was at the expense of the dollar, and in
global terms we never recovered from the July fall, and that
is going to come back to haunt us. All greenspam did was bail
out some of his friends.
Yesterday with only a .22% down side to the DOW, the volume
was 54 to 28 the downside. It looks like
cash flow (184,237,332)
total cap move (9,259,071,306)
--------------------------
184M was eased out of the Dow 30 stocks, this caused
the market cap of those same 30 to drop 9.2B
A hear a lot of noise on CNBC about 8600 to 8700 being
the low and the time for people to buy the dip, but my
indicators say if we go below 8650 then momentum will set
in. 8650 seems to be a hinge point and I don't like the
gamble of counting on a hinge.
More is riding on the shenanigans in the currency market
right now than earnings, we have de coupled from interest
rates at this time, and when that happens the market is
struggling to make up it's short term mind. It's really to
fickle to call with any assurance, but the odds favor more
down side.
Jim
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