Hi BearcatBob,
Obviously anyone onsite and with full access to all of the technical data would be in the best position to assess the situation. But, those guys aren't talking to us very often and even when they do, their releases are not exactly filled with detail. So, we speculate.
If the water is coming (in the casing) up hole the gas portion should be constant since a fixed amount of water should be entering the bore creating a constant extra delta P in the line
Subject to a number of assumptions, yes. Both gas and water streams should be fairly constant in this scenario. But, it would require an explanation for how we went from no water, to some water, to more water, to lots of water over a period of a couple of days. Typically a casing failure would occur abruptly and the water would go rapidly from nil to lots.
If it is from the formation the amount of water should be increasing since the coning would continue to advance.
Yep. And that's just what we saw isn't it ? First a bit of steam, then a lot of steam, then increasing amounts of water until there was enough to extinguish the flame. If the cone continues to grow, it is possible that the flow could even turn into 100% water with no gas (This requires that the casing\cement bond be competent, however.). What impact do you think that might have on the share prices ??
It is also possible that the cone could reach an pseudo steady state condition where gas and water rates were both stable.
Remember too that until the flow is diverted through proper test equipment, all rate "measurements" will be fairly subjective. (Eg. That water spout still looks to be landing in the same spot in the pit! Or, even though the wind direction has changed 90 degrees and the wind is a bit stronger today, that flare looks pretty much like it did yesterday!) So, maybe it is asking too much at this point to have a really good handle on flows.
I think we have to believe that the flow is NOT PRESENTLY outside the casing. (They have been able to install a new BOP and are diverting the flow to the pits.) Hopefully, if and when then close in the BOP, it will stay that way!! If not, no one will be questioning the need for a relief well!!
IMHOO, BWDIK, and all other appropriate disclaimers !!
Later,
grayhairs |
