HC;
<<But to conclude that I am "dead wrong" about the market going to 8200...well, now I am afraid you are speaking with emotions again. >>
Gee, there you go again. You seem to believe that you have a special window into my emotional self. But you are mistaken. I want to clarify something here. I do not feel qualified to analyze and predict market moves. I do feel qualified to comment on the DD sector. but my track record isn't spotless. Its a tough sector. For the market tempo I depend heavily on more seasoned market watchers as metronomes. Again, the emotions you are so anxious to saddle me with had more to do with your first post then my views of the market. Below are my reference sources. I am sure you can find some to counter with. These are the ones I read and factor into my thinking because I respect them and the following fairly represents why I do not believe the market will see 8200 before the end of the year (within 18 days). All submitted below FWIW.
Another thing. Re-reading my original post to you I admit it is regrettable and too angry in tone. While it was a fair representation of what I felt but I shouldn't have hung it out like that. My apologies. I still believe you are mistaken about the market near term. But then all of this is JMHO.
Stitch (See below)
reprinted for personal use only
DAVID SCHULTZ (Mr. Schultz is a trader, hedge fund advisor and president of Summit Capital Holdings, a registered Investment Advisory firm. He publishes SectorVue, a daily, faxed newsletter which reviews market, sector and stock activity.) SCHDAV@aol.com
“With the impeachment vote on Thursday fear is running high and the timing is certain. This gives everyone who wants to get out plenty of time to sell. In these situations the trading rule is- expect a big rally after the news is announced, however the news comes out. The size of the rally depends on how oversold the market is on the news date. The reason this happens is there are nothing but buyers left since all profit takers and fear mongers have exited. For historical precedents see the Persian Gulf war and the Canadian unity vote.”
STEVE TODD (Steve Todd, editor of the Todd Market Forecast, has a background in mathematics and worked as an engineer and stockbroker before becoming an investment advisor in 1984. TRACK RECORD His long term stock market analysis has, for years, been ranked consistently in the top 2% of the hundred plus services ranked by TimerDigest. His intermediate term timing has been ranked consistently in the top ten.) toddmarketforecast.com
“When you think of the bad news the markets have had to deal with andthe additional fact that they were hit with a lot of this when they were over bought, the reaction has been pretty mild. We think that this is because the intermediate to longer term underpinnings have continued to be strong. We look for higher prices well into late January.”
JOHN BOLLINGER, CFA, CMT (Bollinger is best known for his ten years as Financial News Network's Chief Market Analyst and for his market commentary on CNBC. He has published the Capital Growth Letter since 1988 and is President of Bollinger Capital Management. bollingerbands.com
“Our contention here is that most participants are weather-vaning with the short to intermediate-term trends of the market; that there are few firmly held opinions and that it is this very lack of conviction that leads to the volatility we are experiencing.”
BERT DOHMAN (Bert Dohmen is president and founder of Dohmen Capital Research Institute, Inc.(DCRI) He has achieved an international reputation for his expertise in forecasting the major investment markets, interest rates, and economic trends.) dohmencapital.com
Bert Dohmen's Weekly HotlineFriday, December 11, 1998
The "I" Word Makes Traders Nervous
In last week's message, I didn't think that the pullback in the market was over. As we saw this week, it was not. For the week, the Dow Industrials lost 2.2%, but the NASDAQ Composite actually gained 1.3%.The "I" word, namely impeachment proceedings, are causing investors to temporarily retreat to the sidelines. Yesterday, the Dow Industrials soldoff on an intra-day basis more than 200 points. Today, the sell off continued with the Dow being down more than 100 points intra-day. But on news that Mr. Clinton would give another public apology for his actions, the market rallied. In the last hour of trading, the market recovered significantly. The Dow closed with a loss of almost 20 points, but the NASDAQ was up a strong 13 points on Friday. After the market closed, Mr. Clinton presented his apology. But the headlines this weekend will read "Impeachment". That will definitely concern some investors, especially those abroad. On the other hand, political experts think a Senate vote for impeachment is impossible, and that therefore, nothing will happen to shake up the administration. That makes sense to me. Therefore, any further sell off on Monday or Tuesday will probably be a good buying opportunity. On a technical basis, today's late-hour rebound produces a potentially positive chart formation. It's the first part of a basing process of this pull back. We saw a number of key stocks having nice gains today, such as IBM up 3, Sun up 4 3/8, Microsoft up almost 2 , etc É They will be the leaders in the next up move. Also, a number of my technical indicators are approaching support. They're not quite there, which leads me to believe that some further weakness is likely.On the economic front, things look excellent. There is no inflation, but retail sales are strong. The Producer Price Index (PPI) last month declined2%, which is more than a 24% annual rate. That's deflation! The CRB Commodities Index is in a free fall, and gold today was down $3.40. Don't touch. When the leader of a country is in trouble, the currency usually declines. The dollar is now in the tenth day of sell off. Lately, a weak dollar has produced a weak stock market. Therefore, when the dollar rallies, start buying stocks. Coke issued a profit warning today, and lost over three points. The airlines were down sharply, but the technology sector had some nice gainers.In conclusion, I believe my scenario is still on track. The pullback we had expected is not quite finished, but getting close. It should be followed by another move upward. In fact, the first part should be quite strong. |
