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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 662.72+0.4%Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: brian z who wrote (1612)12/13/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: stockycd  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
brian z and all,

More thoughts...

Well, SEA is down and as a result the futures are way down. Friday the Dow made an intraday low of 8730. Last week, we said that if we broke 8954 we would get to 8729 and consolidation would likely start. From what the daily Dow chart is looking like, Friday afternoon may have been all the consolidation we get. A distinct head and shoulders pattern has been formed since 10/29/98. We have completed the right shoulder and are starting down to the right side neckline. If this is the case, I am expecting next week to be down all week. There is support for the head and shoulders at 8420. What really pushed me over the edge was the action in the Transports on Friday. Guys, it's not looking good. Unless there is a major economic catastrophe, the 8100-7900 area for the Dow will support us. That's when I'll start going long.
Even though the Nasdaq continues to show strength, the breadth is decidedly negative. So it's only a matter of time before the Nasdaq starts to fall. The RUT has been banging it's head against it's 200 day ma. If it doesn't pop up SOON (and I don't think it will) it should start falling.

BTW, I did a detailed analysis on the DOW 30 this weekend. Man, if it wasn't for AT&T. Some of the components are getting fairly oversold short term. Watch for consolidation starting Tues/Weds.

Keep your eyes open and good luck to everyone.
My opinions only...
Chris
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