*AV* ADVR--ADVR--ADVR--ADVR
Hallelujah brothers and sisters. I just got back from a holy roller revival meeting under the big tent. I made it through posts 400-800 and have I got religion. Things may be changing from 800-2200 but only time will tell. I caught Shawn's first post here at #777. So the following comments are based on 400-800 on this thread. As I get through the rest, I will further comment.
I knew nothing about ADVR until you asked me to check it out. Reticulose (sp) is supposed to be a 30 year old wonder compound that is going to come into its own real soon as part of the cures for a variety of maladies. #400-800 is a great deal of unbridled hype by a number of people, some facts being presented by a few diligent doctors (I Believe), re posting of old releases, and more hype about prices of old and prices of the future.
This stock has gone everywhere from $0.01 to $1.90 and has failed to do 4 things, go to 2-3 or even 5 dollars, get taken over by Merck, go to $100, or become a stable stock. Plenty of hype and plenty of "hold onto your hats, its taking off". I do not have a chart on this stock to look at its hostory since 6/96 but from what I have read, this stock has done a $ 0.20 to $1.50 and thereabouts round trips. It has visited $0.29-$0.875 probably as many times as it went from $1.20/1.50 to below $ 0.50 (again this is the impression from what I read and not backed up with charts). This is a volatile baby and has 100s of millions of shares outstanding and possibly up to 1 billion in total available stock. Stock is released in order to raise funds for more research. The main researcher originally had a few thousand shares and now has options for 10s of millions of shares.
For those interested, especially you James, you can get a flavor of this company by reading the following posts from 400-800. Keep track of the people involved. There seem to be a few major characters at this point.
405,406,418,425,427,440,452,454,455,460,464,467,469,515(*),522(*),527,
538,566,572,596,608,638,655,674,687,693,709,712,735,758-761,766,770-773,781,781,783,788,796-798.
Right now, at this point, which is Aug 96, we are looking for a good run up and coming and some real neat releases. Today the price is at $0.32, down 7%. I am going to leisurely open an E*trade account and place $ 7520 into the account to cover a 30,000 share purchase should the stock go down to $0.25 ask. Unless anything pops up in the 800-2200 part of the thread (anyone interested could volunteer to take a block of numbers and feed back data or highlight post #s), I think a $0.25 entry point has as much probability to go to $0.10 as it would rise to $ 0.63 or $ 1.00. Per P. Webster instructions, E*trade will immediately be asked (if they can do it) to put a $0.50 GTC exit point on it.
What I have seen so far is a real volatile roller coaster ride that is extremely dangerous but if you have the staying power, you can ride out some crap. I do not know where James and Shawn really stand on this stock as of yet but it looks like this is a MM and traders dream. Lots of people tied into this ADVR thread big time trying to set up websites, send CNN reports, hype stock, act knowledgeable, are knowledgeable, and of course positive that this stock is going to make them all super rich.
If indeed, this company, has patentable material, wants to get a patent, is taken over, has its formulation ripped off by a major company, has the CURE, etal., one thing is very clear. This one drug in question is a one drug wonder and its sales should not exceed the size of any of the major Pharmceutical companies. Merck's market capitalization is roughly $78 Billion and is a much more diverse company dealing in at least 100x more products than ADVR will. Giving ADVR the benefit of the doubt as to the value of its drug and company, I would give it a market cap of only 10% of Merck. This gives the shares a maximum value of $8 in my book ($8 billion on a billion shares).
Sorry if this is not the answer you are looking for. I understood the techno jargon only because I was a Chemistry major. I will update my comments as I go through the rest of the posts but hopefully I will have help and we can put together on post with impressions by 100s or weeks or months. I do not see anything happening to the stock except wild fluctuates for undertermined real reasons. Does this make it a traders best dream come true???? If nothing else, I will have a tax loss for 1997 here if the order fills at $ 0.25 before all the information is properly assimilated. I also beleive it will go to $ 0.25 and my order will be filled. |
