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Technology Stocks : Thrustmaster (NASDAQ:TMSR)

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To: FreedomForAll who wrote (1796)	12/14/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: Kailash	of 2443

Here's a look at three sources for earnings estimates for TMSR. Everyone agrees that last quarter was the pits and earnings are heading up from there - TMSR missed estimates by 99% - but nobody has much of a clue by how much. To come out positive for 1998, the company must earn .95 a share during the current quarter (if my figures are right; I haven't gone back and checked the first two quarters), which is more than what the recent company press release anticipated. On balance, a 1998 loss of at least 50 cents seems likely, which is way below the still official Zacks estimate of a 40 cent gain. Since their new software won't be available until after new year, a greater loss is very possible. Next year is an open bet - I won't try to estimate the impact of their new software, though I understand it is currently available for free. It is certainly software that deserves to become popular. So far the promotions have been timed to prop up the share price - and very successfully too - rather than to advertise the product; I'm also skeptical to their sending out a press release promising a redesigned web site. So far this is really not very substantial. One of the directors entered to sell 30,000 on 12/10; he sold the same amount at the peak in spring. I would worry I'm being taken for a ride - it'll in any case be a bumpy one, and probably with much better entry points in a couple of weeks. If I'm right, we just peaked at 11 today. TMSR Earnings - Various Estimates: Current Fiscal Year 12/98 (reporting 1/20/98?) - quite a spread: zacks: $ 0.40 411: $ -.08 WSRN: $ -.58 Next Fiscal year 12/99 - long term optimism: Zacks: na 411: 0.77 WSRN: 0.41 Current Quarter 12/98 (reporting 1/20/99) - anybody's guess: Zacks: na 411: na WSRN: 0.37 (this optimistic estimate still gives a '98 loss of -.58) Next Quarter 3/99 Zacks: na 411: na WSRN: 0.01 Last Quarter 9/98 Known: -0.75 EPS surprise last quarter (analysts have been very wrong before): Known: 99%

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