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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2469)12/14/1998 5:17:00 PM
From: Lars  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
*** Market & Politics ***

Impeachment, the Dow and your money
By Paul E. Erdman, CBS MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- America drives the world. Consumer spending drives America. The Dow Jones Industrial Average drives consumer spending. Or so goes current thinking.

It is the confusion about what impeachment is and is not that we should worry about.

From this can one can draw the logical conclusion that if an unexpected event suddenly undermines investor confidence, and thus the Dow, the party will soon be over for everybody.

Would the impeachment of President Clinton be such an event?

Barron's Alan Abelson, the dean of American commentators on financial matters, seems to think so. In Barron's latest issue he wrote the following:

"Our suspicion is that the roll call on impeachment will coincide with a noticeable increase in investor interest -- and investor apprehension. And we also believe that if Mr. Clinton is impeached, apprehension could turn into widespread distress, from which panic is only a few palpitations removed."

The problem is that the majority of Americans equate the impeachment of a president by the House of Representatives with his removal from office.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Impeachment is merely an act that refers the matter to the Senate for trial. A president's actual removal would only occur if, at the end of the impeachment trial, two thirds of the Senators voted to do so. Which is simply not going to happen. The votes are not there.

It is the confusion about what impeachment is and is not that we should worry about. If this coming Friday's headlines read "PRESIDENT IMPEACHED" who knows what type of irrational behavior might follow?

Frankly, I think that Wall Street has been right all along to simply ignore what has been going on in Washington. But the test of whether they will continue to be right will come this Friday.
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