Another good effort by Tero. But he gets a few things wrong. There is still huge profit to be made in cellphones. The question is who will make it? The same as Dell was hugely profitable through the 90s despite Tero saying that PCs were not the place to invest. Sure, Nokia did extremely well too, but Dell, in a mature market, did massively well!
Cellphones have barely got going. As he says, 200% market penetration for cellular products is likely. I'd say more than that. So far in the world there are only a few hundred million people with crusty old handsets which have no image capability let alone vegemite dispensing and all the other accoutrements of a real communications gadget. Think of a piece of flint used to cut animal hide and compare it with a Swiss Army pocket knife.
The fun has begun.
Mqurice
Tero said:
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I would argue that for people wanting to make huge financial killings the future is now somewhere very few of us realize. Just like back in 1990 everybody thought that the PC industry was the best place to invest in and mobile phones were seen as yuppie oddities. For people willing to accept 30-50% annual returns Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola are intriguing possibilities. For people wanting much, much more, the mobile phone industry is yesterday's news. You missed the gold rush by a decade. So did I, but I'm not whining. I'm no conquistador and for me, a fair likelihood of 40% annual returns during next 3-5 years are plenty enough. If you need more excitement than that, perhaps the stock market is not the right place to look.
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PS: Here is an interesting item. People in SI being sued for defamation.
Message 6781896
Subject 24219
So when we accuse L M Ericsson of being like hagfish, paying people like Frezza to defame genuine good jokers like Irwin Jacobs and accusing Irwin and QUALCOMM of fraud, being part of a CDMA Mafia etc we must be careful to be truthful.
I might ask that lawyer to take a case for me and sue L M Ericsson and their paid consultant Bill Frezza for defamation of my company, employees and products. They have done billions in damage with their false statements about IPR, about Jacobs, about QUALCOMM, about the 'CDMA Mafia', about cdmaOne, about chicken wire and bubblegum, about QUALCOMM to customers [the subject of a case by Q! against L M Ericsson], about QUALCOMM blocking the industry, about ownership of cdma soft hand off technology and much much more. All with a view to stopping cdmaOne developing a market presence so that they could continue to gain GSM sales.
They have used a long and concerted effort to defame QUALCOMM, cdmaOne and cdma2000.
I hope QUALCOMM has copied all those false, damaging and defamatory comments over the years. |
