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Biotech / Medical : ASTM-AASTROM BIOSCIENCES: STEM CELL RESEARCH
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To: TheAlaskan who wrote (337)12/14/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: w sun   of 1084
 
"70,000 US Sickle Cell Anemia patients X $15,000 per Aastrom treatment = $1,050,000,000! No competition=pure monopoly=license to print money."

Not sure what will be the size of potential rev for astm. Just last month, when COBE terminated its agreement with ASTM. Cobe said: "While we have been committed to the development of the aastromReplicell™ System for the stem cell therapy field, the recent changes and progress in the cell therapy arena have required a new approach with this novel product." This is not a good sign. If Cobe can't see any money coming soon after putting in $20M (which now valued at ~$10M), one has to agree that there is considerable risk investing in astm at present price level.

ASTM already said that its cash can last to mid of 1999. Without Cobe, ASTM needs even more money for marketing/service in Europe. It's doubtful that the potential rev (assuming successful launch in Europe) is sufficient in near term. For ASTM to survive and succeed, 2 things have to happen:

1) Find a partner for marketing in Europe.
2) Find a financial sponsor to pull money in to sustain its operation.

Recent publicity in the media on blood cell therapies should help. But the bottom line is: ASTM is risky.

BTW, there are several competitions, including AMGEN, in advanced development stage out there. ASTM is just a bit ahead of others ;-)(ws)
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