Yes I think it can be weak afterwards, but in December is when
the illiquid fire sales seem to occur. Thats why I say, by January.
The times I've seen bad Octobers, December offers another chance a
equivalent or better valuations. '87, '97, and now I think maybe '98.
At some point you just have to pick a point and go for it, sometimes you can get lucky with T.A. but to buy low, sell high you have to handle the pain when you've bought low and it goes lower. I doubt the semi-equip will tank very fast, though, with amat and nvls up near their highs it might be a while waiting for them to be let go. The earnings story in February may have some hope (and possibly another run-up) but it will probably be quantitatively weak (as predicted by management). 3com will report monday, btw: I expect an upbeat report even if they suck, that might spur a christmas rally for tech hardware.
Greg |
