Kurt,
1) Agree. Although August and November 10Q's acknowledge an uptick in revenues beginning in 1Q99.
2) I wouldnt know about this, although Markman has repeatedly stated they are good to go thru 4Q99.
3) Preferred B & C's: Psychologically I agree.
4) Shorting going on, yes. Preferred's shorting, no, I cant agree. I have heard this repeatedly and I cant see it based on the SEC documents and the preliminary proxy. As per the Certificate of Designations (Exhibit 3.1, Sec 4), the Preferred B's are free to convert at any time with a fixed conversion price of 3/share. This deal was signed on March 4, one day before the MSFT announcement. GMGC stock went to 14.875 of 6/22/98. Why didnt they convert and sell? We know from the proxy that only 1400 have been converted: 1400 x 1000(liquidation price) = 1,400,000/3 = 466,667 common shares.
The C shares have a fixed conversion price of 6/share at this time as a result of the waiver agreement, reverting to 10/share if proxy passed. Conversion of 1451 took place on November 12 as a result of this allowance. Until then NO conversion could have taken place. Alternatively, conversion can take place if the closing market price is 115% of the average of 4 day low closing bid price in any 20 day rolling period. This is effective now as a result of November 25 being passed. (There was a time consideration on the C shares unlike the B shares.) Say 5/share is the 4 day average for any 20 day period. Well then, to convert, there must be in that period a closing market price of 10.75. (5 x 115% = 10.75). While this is all possible doesnt this sound just a bit too risky?
There was a day last week when about 400,000 shares traded in about 30 minutes. I think the volume for the day was about 1M shares. It looked to me like private transactions as the blocks (one about 200,000 shares) traded below the bid and yet the bid and ask never budged. Now, the C's converted at 5.0791/share on November 12. My guess is that this transaction at 5 5/8 was a private preferred deal.
Of course, my assumption in all of this is that the Preferred shareholders, of which two, RGC International and Halifax, who own about 2/3 of both the Preferred B & C shares and the lion's share of the 37,000,000 offering are more likely to take these 1/2 profit points and hold the Preferred B's as longer term investments. There are other players out there and gorilla like competitors that could put a psychological whammy on GMGC perceived ability to perform in a heartbeat. Why take this kind of risk?
5) I think the meat of what GMGC is trying to do come hell or high water is build a group of loyal customers early, based on dependability and corporate responsiveness while continuing to offer cutting edge technology. Really, this is their only option as they cant play in the same sandbox with the gorillas and that is fine with me.
Hope I made some sense.
stephen |
