Exactly! I came to a similar conclusion based on last quarter's press release.
Now here is where the imprecision comes from. I haven't examined that part of the 10-Q yet, but I believe the numbers you quote are based on $$$ volume, not unit sales. Dell does not break out ASP by line (i.e., we don't know what the ASPs for desktops were in each of these quarters), but we do know that ASP has been falling. That means that your estimate of 10.6% growth is actually an underestimate, but by how much we don't know.
Furthermore, I pointed out that the 9.6% estimate is too high, because it is based on factory output, not sales to the final purchaser. So, it might be inflated due to build-ups in inventories in the distribution channels, and it also comes off of an abnormally sluggish output quarter, when companies like Compaq and IBM and HWP were trying to work off bloated channel inventories.
I wrote a series of posts to JHG about a month ago on these issues, and he even e-mailed my analysis to Kumar for comment, but Kumar declined to mix it up with the great unwashed. After all, he is an "analyst".
Thanks for your confirmation.
TTFN,
CTC |
