Joe:
> so if I correctly understand what you're saying is that I can buy this
> NC and hook up to the internet and load up MS WORD so I can
> word process right ?
> How this is software usage going to be charged ? 2 dollars a minute
> ? 5 dollars per use ?
> Who's going to pay for those expensive Sun servers ? The ISP...so
> they can charge us more for online service ?
>What about the bandwidth problem ? MS Word is over 12
> megabytes...
> What if the connection breaks while I am typing a 20 page report (
>Would it be saved ??? I would kill someone if it was lost !!!)
> While I understand that NC maybe be well suited in specific niches
> like order entries and other types of light duty work...but there is no
> way in hell I am going to give up my PC for a dumb terminal.
Yes, your understanding of the concept is very good. As far as not
imagining how these things going to happen and that as you put it
there is no way you are going to replace your PCs with NCs, it is
quite understandable, and I never meant to imply that. However if you
go back about 12-13 years you will see that people were saying the
same thing about Mainframe computers and the client/server
technology. And there were corporations (small and large alike)
saying that there was no way in hell they will give up their IBM
mainframes for PCs and work stations.. Well see what happened!
The software complexity grew and if they had stayed with mainframes
it would have been extremly expensive for them. Internet/Web is an
extension to the client/server technology. You may call Client/Server
the next generation (sort of like Star Trek: The next generation! It is
hard at first to like it but as you get into it you will see its has a lot of
value!).
As time goes by software becomes more complex requring more
powerful hardware to support it. Look at Microsoft Office 97. I was at
Microsoft last week and even they admit that it is going to take a
while for this product to take off because people (and corporations)
will need to upgrade to more expensive PCs and they are not in any
rush to do so. Main reasn being that tomorrow another software might
require even a more powerful PC. So they are going to wait till things
settle down and then act.
The concept of NCs will become known in late 1997, early 1998
as JavaBeans (and Microsoft's ActiveX) evolve and become mature
allowing large software applications to run effectively over the net
(i.e. with great performance and security). It is hard to imagine it now
because the public has not seen it. But prototyping is being done as
we are discussing these and believe me it is DOABLE! Just keep an
open mind. It was hard to imagine man lnading on moon also 30 years
ago but we have send men to the moon! As your question of who is
going to buy Sun's and others expensive servers (e.g. Auspex, HP,
etc.) well take a look at AOL and how the demand for their services
has grown with their flat rate fee! AOL (in tghe short run) is spending
close to 350 million dollars in new servers and other networking
equipments! As far as how much and who will be charging for the
software accessible over the net. I dont know, but I do know it will
happen. AOL type of companies may provide the service. An
analogy can be made to Video stores. Every small shopping mall in
every neighborhood you go has at least a couple of video rental
sotres renting out your favorit videos. A few years ago this was a new
concept but now every neighborhood takes for granted that there is
a video rental store right around the corner. When a new movie
comes out you can either go to the movie theatre and pay $7.50 (at
least) and see it there or you can wait till the video comes out and
rent it (for $2), and even though it is illegal (!) you can even make a
copy before returning it back to the store! In my opinion software is
very much like movies and videos. I believe as the internet model
evolves the same concept of Video rental store maybe extended to
software as well, with AOL type companies behaving like Block
Buster video rental sotres nationwide. And then all you need is a NC
(sort of like VCR)!
Anyway, this is how in my humble opinion I see the internet model is
evolving.. But of course I may very well be wrong! One thing I know
from experience though, one needs to keep a very open mind when
it comes to technology. Technology is all based on an initial
imagination that man makes and then follows it in order to make it into
a reality! The greater the imagination and free open minded one is
the more progress one can make!
Regards,
- Addi Jamshidi |
