G'day all - dear Brent, thanks for the analysis. Here is the interview with the CFO
biz.yahoo.com
in which he said he is comfortable with a 38c to 40c estimate for 1998 and 56c for 1999. Growth should be about 20%. Backlog has increase from $40MM at the beginning of the year to $45MM. That is in the backdrop of AT&T has accounted for $25MM of the $40MM to $5MM of the $45MM, if I read it right.
So, the trailing p/e is < 21 [7.875/.38,] but the forward p/e is ~ 14 [7.875/.56] And this is based on continuous operation without the inclusion of the one time gains. Therefore, conservatively, the forward PEG is .7 and earning growth is 47% [(56-38)/38*100.] This is against the backdrop of the S&P 500 average trailing p/e of 22 to 28 [don't have the latest stats] and the projected earning growth from 1.3 to 19%.
Once again, no matter how one sees it, from either the value or growth perspective, or both, BVSI looks cheap.
To put the horn blowing aside, there is some downside. It is a small cap. It has only 3 analysts tracking it. There is some uncertainty in the leadership role. And there may be some share dilution in case AT&T exercises [if it hasn't done so already] the option to take a stake in the co. I do believe these are minor issues. And the CEO situation can be a positive event should BVSI land a seasoned exec from a major co [telcos or networking]
What do you all think?
best, Bosco
|
