>>>That day will come. When anyone with an ISP address can pay bills on line! I say 12 months max(maybe a lot sooner). And that is something you can bank on
Well I hope you understand I was being conservative to the point that they eventually fail? $1,800,000 a month on ~30 top 100 billers works out to about 1/10 OF ONE CENT A MONTH A BILLER IN NET REVENUE...five years out?
ie...take any 10 Billers they have now, and they will make a PENNY, or 600,000 every month in Earnings. That's a monthly Bill Presentation rate of 22,500,000 billings at .08 net.
So the assumption is they will present only 5% of the total billings(450,000,000 x .05 = 22,500,000), and net 8 cents on each bill, and that's all they will every do with this thing. That's conservative.
REALLY
In order to project revenues that far out, you'd need to know
1)Number of Households doing on line banking then, I've seen numbers ranging from 20 Million to 30 Million by then.
2)The percentage of those on line Households doing on line bill pay? 80, 70, 60, 50, 40?
3)How many monthly bills do those Households then have e-billed? 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10?
4)And what market share does CheckFree end up with? 25% 50-60% or?
So if you took high side all the way....
24,000,000 households(80% of the 30 MIL) getting 10 e-bills five years out, and CheckFree had 60% of the market at 32 cents a bill, they'd gross $76,800,000 a month in e-bill revenue.
if you took the low side all the way....
8,000,000 households(40% of the 20 MIL) getting 5 e-bills five years out, and Checkfree had 25% of the market at 32 cents a bill, they'd gross $3,200,000 a month in e-bill revenue.
I would have to think, based on the number of alliances, partnerships and the players entering the segment now...that they are betting on the high side numbers, because it isn't worth it for MicroSoft to spend 2 years...along with FDC & Citi to go after a segment which only grosses $12,800,000 a month(4 x 3,200,000), $153,600,000 a year. Everybody IMO is eyeing the $102,400,000 a month(76,800,000 / .60), 1.536 Billion a year market. Or something between. |
