Hi....I just got back from a week in Tx and was expecting to see a msg from you!...I agree with your premise, and I personally expect the buyout scenarios to play out in '98 and '99 for this segment. Maybe sooner, but I do know that the big players want stronger/larger companies before they will pay the multiples that these firms would demand at buyout time.
BTW, I personally believe AMSI is a screaming buy at less than $6 a share. Given market conditions, being a very small cap stock with low trading volume with profitibility not projected till q2 or q3 (I don't remember which we're projecting right now...its still the same as we were projecting at the time of the IPO I believe...), I tend to speculate (with a trader's mindset, not an employee's) that we'll dip down their a few times prior to q3 and q4.
But I also expect continued broad swings etc...its a no brainer as a long term hold (I still have my mom holding it at the IPO price), but dangerous on a short term trading basis. As a curious blend of a value and monmentum investor, I personally sold the shares that I picked up atthe IPO in August (prior to my 30 day end of quarter window), now bank most of my APACHE investment on options I have, and play other areas of the market till q2/q3 in 1997, then move back in.
I typically invest in stocks that I would feel comfortable holding several years waiting for a payout, buying them after months of analysis and timing, and selling and re-buying them during this time period with the goal of a 15-35% gain per transaction. About half my stocks I hold for several years, the other half I turn over 2-3 times a year. I've yet to sell a stock at a loss, but I have held stock through serious setbacks due to mis-timing the bottoms. I've probably averaged a 20-30% annual return overall in the last ten years, including 1987 when I sold out my positions due to dumb luck in August before the crash (had a short term cash crunch!). Oh well...
Let me know what you do with AMSI... |
