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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 685.40+1.2%Jan 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Electric who wrote (2136)12/16/1998 8:09:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Jerry Favors Analysis - Wednesday, December 16, 1998 8 p.m.

The Dow reached a print high this morning of 8851.36,
at which the Dow was up 28 pts. The Dow then sold off and at
the lows was down over 80 pts. We closed down 32.70. Within
an hour after the close it was announced that the U.S. has
officially begun another attack on Iraq. The question now is
how will the market react to this news tomorrow? That is a
question we cannot answer with any certainty. We can say that
a decline below 8740 on a print basis will signal a test of
8676 . If 8676 is broken lower prices will follow. If it is
broken a projection would be given calling for 8556 plus or
minus 90 points on an intraday basis. The reaction in the
overseas markets tonight and tomorrow morning will likely set
the tone for the Dow. If the market overreacts to the
downside in some sort of wild emotional plunge it could
well set up another short term low, even if our stop at 8573
is broken. In fact we would raise that stop to 8595 on a
print basis for stock traders and mutual fund switchers. If
our stop is taken out it would not alter the probability of
some sort of short term low if we get an emotional dumping of
stocks tomorrow. But we must keep our risk reasonable so we
will keep our stop in place. If stopped put we will let the
dust settle and decide what new action we will take after the
close.
Short term traders, by which we mean option traders,raise
your stops to 8740 on a print basis in the Dow.

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