Shane, the second hypothesis I have about vendors replacing legacy systems is that it's possibly too late.... ie. if you've wait until 1999 to implement your new ERP system, then you won't get it before 2000. These systems are pretty tricky, and if your company is depending on it, it's not something you would want to rush.
So if this is the case, then one wouldn't expect great sales in 1999, for the macroeconomic reasons MB suggests.
Right now, I'm not sure which view is correct, though obviously Baan and PSFT's recent performances support this hypothesis. I'm not sure, either way, about their business long-term... my guess would be OK, but not close to their historical growth rate. SAP makes me nervous as it seems to have the greatest chance of being the gorilla.
Richard |
