Thanh, I'd be surprised if PSFT can beat SAP in large corporations. It's not impossible, but IMO, SAP is pretty close to being the gorilla in this market, and I think that the market will consolidate around the gorilla/chimp/chimp model... The software is of the type where a CIO would want to buy the market leader, because the consequences of an incorrect decision are huge and the CYA factor (Cover your a**) becomes important.
It seems like there is space to expand into smaller corporations, but I'm not sure how long that will be there. It seems that SAP, Baan and PSFT at least see this market as the future; I'm not sure about Oracle. I've heard SAP has problems scaling down, and it is understandable why from looking at the system. However, I still have the concern that everyone will try to enter the same niche at the same time, and nobody will actually make much money....
Though this post makes me seem bearish, overall, I'm more neutral and am mostly sitting out. There are too many uncertainties in Y2K, SAP gorillification (ie. the act of becoming a gorilla. :) ), this new R&D organization, and the future collisions in the new market that all the ERP vendors see as their salvation. Short term, there's a small chance that I'll play a pop after Christmas based on the January effect.
Richard |
