No Charlie Brown, Linux Gains Respect
Date: 12/17/98
Author: Paul Korzeniowski
Get ready to meet Linux, the latest technology billed as having the potential to loosen Microsoft Corp.'s viselike grip on computers.
Like IBM Corp.'s OS/2 and Novell Inc.'s UnixWare, Linux is operating software that some people in the industry view as technically superior to Microsoft's leading Windows.
But Linux has one big advantage over OS/2 and UnixWare. It doesn't belong to any one company. Instead, the fast-emerging operating system is available to anyone for free. Software developers are encouraged to use it and improve it.
Anyone can use it, and a couple of companies are even making a business out of selling ''support'' for Linux. This is in the form of documentation, installation, service and perhaps bundled software they give to their Linux licensees.
This ''universal'' operating system is the brainchild of Linus Torvalds. He created it in his spare time, starting in '91, while he was a student at the University of Helsinki, Finland.
As a student, he developed an interest in Minix, a compact version of Unix. That's the high-end operating system used in most workstations, though the Microsoft version of Windows called NT is fast gaining ground on Unix.
Torvalds wanted to build a better variation of Minix. In '94, he delivered version 1.0 of Linux. The operating system has been gaining popularity ever since.
Engineers like Linux for several reasons. It's stable - it doesn't require a lot of memory or processing power to run - and it's free. It's used to do such tasks as design airplanes, develop network security firewalls, control huge telescopes and operate Web servers.
Of course, Unix does much of the same. The difference is that companies can change Unix in certain ways to differentiate their offerings, so software written for IBM Unix might not run on a Sun Microsystems Inc. machine. With Linux, that isn't possible. There's only one version of the operating system.
A handful of small, privately held companies have emerged to sell their Linux support. They include Caldera Inc. of Orem, Utah, and Red Hat Software Inc. of Research Triangle Park, N.C.
These start-ups have advantages.
''A Linux vendor doesn't have to support an expensive research-and-development staff, because anyone is able to submit an enhancement,'' said Dan Kusnetzky, analyst in the Sarasota, Fla., office of International Data Corp., a market research firm.
Why would anyone enhance a product that someone else will use to make money? Because Joe Engineer loves to program and show other engineers how smart he is. This is one of the attractions with Linux. Engineers see it as an opportunity to display their skills.
Building a business on contributions from unseen engineers may seem risky, but this system apparently is panning out.
''Engineers have focused on areas where they have expertise and have been able to add a wide range of functions to Linux,'' said Derek Burney, senior vice president of engineering at Canada's Corel Corp.
Licenses Rising
Judging by license sales by Linux support companies, the open approach is working. IDC estimates that the number of commercial Linux licenses for server computers - which dole out software in networks - will rise to 288,000 this year from 220,000 last year and 200,000 in '96. The number of licenses for clients - PCs hooked up to networks - is expected to rise to 2.2 million from 1.8 million and 1.5 million.
Because anyone can download Linux for free, the number of licenses doesn't tell the full story in terms of use. The actual number of users could well exceed the number of licenses by ten times, IDC says.
But Linux still has to fill in many pieces before it plays David to Microsoft's Goliath.
End users aren't as interested in operating-system features as are engineers. To make inroads into broader markets, operating systems need attractive applications.
There are many thousands of products that work on Windows. But only recently have a few established software makers shown interest in creating products for Linux.
Corel ported its WordPerfect suite earlier this year to Linux. Netscape Communications Corp. of Mountain View, Calif., has Web-browsing software that works on Linux. By early next year, Netscape is slated to release a version of its newest Web browser, messaging server and directory server software that runs on Linux.
Oracle Corp. of Redwood Shores, Calif., is developing a version of its database software for Linux. The Oracle package should arrive in early '99.
All of these software makers expect their Linux sales to be less than those of their Windows products, but to be in line with sales of their Unix products within a couple of years.
''We've been monitoring Linux's growth and recently IT (information technology) managers have started to bless it where previously only techies were promoting it,'' said Tim Howes, chief technology officer for the server products division at Netscape.
Hardware Support Lacking
Yet, even while some software makers are ponying up to the new operating system, hardware makers remain on the sidelines. No big hardware vendor has yet promised to support Linux. Linux can be installed on the vendors' machines. But the companies won't provide any service.
''To get into the corporate mainstream, Linux needs to have a few leading PC hardware vendors step up to the plate and deliver products optimized for it,'' IDC's Kusnetzky said.
Lew Platt, chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Co., says his company hasn't yet chosen to support Linux, but the operating system has his eye.
''Linux is gaining a lot of popularity,'' Platt said. ''If you said a year ago that it was a sideshow, I would have agreed. I'd be less likely to say that today.''
Corporate customers expect a high level of support for their desktop operating systems. Today's main Linux suppliers are small, corporate users are leery of adopting the operating system.
Another issue is long-term developments for the operating system.
Torvalds - who founded Transmeta Inc. , a Santa Clara, Calif., start-up working on its first product - now determines which enhancements will be incorporated into the official version of Linux.
That's worked so far, but some worry whether this approach will be viable in the future. Others aren't worried, though.
''I don't think Linux will splinter the way Unix did,'' Corel's Burney said. ''No vendor gains a competitive advantage, because the operating system is essentially free.''
Some industry users are leery of Linux for another reason. They see its supporters bonded more by an aversion to Microsoft than to the benefits of Linux.
But Burney discounts this argument.
''Linux backers didn't start out trying to defeat Microsoft,'' he said. ''They were just trying to build a robust, reliable operating system.''
Goliath's Tough
Finally, history hasn't been kind to those who have tried to battle Goliath. After severing its relationship with Microsoft, IBM tried to win the desktop with OS/2. Novell tried to win the network with UnixWare. And Netscape tried to bypass the operating system and make the browser the focus of application development. Each has failed so far.
Officially, Microsoft says it doesn't see Linux as a threat yet, viewing it more as a Unix replacement than a Windows rival.
Linux supporters understand the challenge.
''Microsoft is the 20th century's greatest marketing firm and won't surrender any of its business without a fight,'' said Bob Young, president of Red Hat Software.
What Linux offers, backers say, is technical superiority and lower prices.
Will that be enough?
''If Linux can gain corporate and consumer acceptance during the next two years, then it could pose a real threat to Microsoft,'' IDC's Kusnetzky said. ''If not, then it will fade into oblivion like so many other technologies.''
(C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily, Inc.
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