Inference Corporation--Growing 100% and still inexpensive Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Inference Corporation--Growing 100% and still inexpensive

INFR 31.99

-0.1%

Jan 27 4:00 PM EST

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To: Dan Berger who wrote (1081)	12/17/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: Trader Harvey	Read Replies (2) of 1246

Almost all software-product firms, especially those with fourth quarters coincident (of in INFR's case, nearly coincident) with the end of calendar year show sizable seasonality with fourth quarters the best and first quarters the weakest. There are three reasons: (1) Customers often want to be sure that they have the unspent money budgeted for such purchases. Early in the calendar year, many such managers want to keep their budget powder dry. (2) Most big-ticket software-product suppliers bonus their field reps based on meeting/exceeding quotas set at the start of each year. Human nature motivates such reps to push their prospects harder for a close as the year wears on, especially given point (1) above. (3) The company, as a whole, is more motivated in the fourth quarter than in earlier quarters to meet/exceed street expectations. Earlier in the year, such companies can claim that they will make up shortfalls later in the year and be somewhat credible. Not so at the end of year because seasoned analysts are aware of (1) and (2) above.

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