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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 201.36

-10.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Trey McAtee who wrote (41463)	12/17/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (2) of 53903

Trey, after reading this it all makes sense. "We're at the start of the next big cycle in semiconductors," said chip analyst Daniel Niles. Niles said he expects Micron's earnings will be twice where they at the peak of last cycle because he anticipates the company will have almost four times as much market share. He's just simple. Hmmm... 3.90 in FY'95 x 2 = $7.80 for FY'01 The consensus for FY'00 is 2.02. So, if everything holds and they make 2.02 in FY'00 and they hit $200 exactly three years from now, we'd be looking at a trailing PE of roughly 100. $7.80 would put us at a 3-year forward multiple of 25.64. The long-term growth rate from IBES is 15%. The long-term growth rate from Zacks is 16.5% (versus 26.7% for the electrical-components-semiconductors group) That's before you even start to look at "namby-pamby" stuff like hardware outlook after the Y2K buying subsides, possible earnings dilution as a result of TXN and INTC shares, ASP's, margins in their "peak year" v. reasonable margins... ...you know the stuff of actual analysis as opposed to popping out a big headline for public consumption. Good trading, Tom

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