Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: clochard who wrote (16181)	12/17/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Don Westermeyer	of 18691

Amazon has a price target of $50 in 12-18 months according to these guys (and I don't think they mean post split): smartmoney.com Amazon.com (AMZN) A day after CIBC Oppenheimer raised its price target for Amazon.com from $150 to an incredible $400, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Jonathan Cohen said he expects the online book and music retailer to be trading around $50 a share in the next 12 to 18 months. He said the company should trade between two and four times calendar revenue and that it needs to earn $3 billion to $4 billion in revenue to achieve a 5% to 6% operating margin. Problems Amazon faces, according to Cohen, are its high cost structure in a low-margin business and his belief that the best commerce sites are those people visit for reasons other than shopping. Meanwhile, Wheat First Union downgraded Amazon from Outperform to Hold, believing that its stock price is ahead of itself and that the "whisper" revenue number of $300 million for the fourth quarter is too high. Needham & Co. reiterated its Hold rating, also citing its high valuation. The firm said the stock was trading at 16.9 times projected 1999 revenue of $846.1 million, compared to the industry average of 7.7.

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