<< it looks like we will have to wait a long time for another 50% upmove. >>
...maybe not.
I am seeing ''The Street'' trying way, way too hard, to spin every bit of news concerning Oil negatively. I do not think I am misinterpreting this. There has been tremendous tax loss selling all ready; I think quite a few funds/traders do not want this sector run up before they can, or want to buy back in...They want a ''sure thing; they want to know what OPEC, Venezeula & Mexico are going to do. They want to know if Clinton is going to resign or get inmpeached. They want to know what the Iraq conflict will evolve into... Hence they are hedging here and the shorts are pouring it on with all they had left, to ''kill'' a rally here. They are literally shaking out the weak hands here, preparing imho; to run this up again - but on their terms and once again, in unison.
Irregardless of the real (oversold, historic contrarian vlauation levels), or imagined (that the Iraq conflict will permanently change the crude enviroment) reasons for a run up here, off of the Iraq conflict, or the Madrid meeting; the BIG story is not that there is no ''real'' fundamental reason for either OSX stocks, or crude to permanently move up substantially here; but rather that there is certainly NO ''real'' reason for them to sell off substantially from here ! We are seeing a classic shakeout here. I think the Street is hoping the Iraq conflict may last a while. They are shaking out the weak, and if Clinton is not Impeached (he will survive the Senate Vote) watch these guys cover their shorts and run this thing up starting the 1st of January imho.
PS; does anyone still remember the ''leak'' on the new production cuts; that were then quickly denied.... ? Ask yourselves - ''Why ?'' - would these 3 meet half-way around the World in Madrid Spain, if the cuts were not allready agreed to in principal; and only the numbers, and shares of the proposed cuts remained to be agreed upon.
Why would the Saudi's not agree to further production cuts; given they alledgedly just borrowed $5 Billion from a neighbor, and who are courting the Oil Majors once again, and who by the best analysis I've read, need nearly $17 Brl Crude prices just to meet current social programs and budgetary costs ? - Saudi's true breakeven for crude is NOT the often quoted $1-$2-$3 ''net cost'' out of the ground, but rather the ''real'' cost must be calculated in terms of their dramatic dependance on crude for virtually their entire existance and budget - hence the $17 breakeven number. The theories that Saudi Arabia is making some grand play on grabbing market share via flooding the market with cheap crude is ludicrous; simply not even possible. They are in dire straits, could not do it if they wanted to; more importantly - a Global crude war, would not and could not be tolerated, as the International financial reprecussions would be too extreme and could lead to a collapse of not only a few Countries, or Currencies , but the International Banking Community as well.
This sell off through the end of this month, will be ''the'' buying opportunity imho. January will bring a positive ''spin'' to virtually all crude news and we will finally hear all of the ''historic value'' comments and contrarian play endorsements etc.
Time will tell.... but there is unquestionably some major ''spin-doctoring'' going on here. Someone is trying way, way too hard here of late... |
