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Pastimes : Don't Ask Rambi
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To: Gauguin who wrote (15579)12/17/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: JF Quinnelly  Read Replies (2) of 71178
 
"Those of you who are technicians and follow the CRB will no doubt have
noticed that we recently broke below a 12 year Triple Bottom at 195.
After breaking below this critical support level last week the CRB got
as low as 188, then retested former support (195) yesterday. Today the
CRB is plunging again. This is partly because US bombers did not touch
Iraqi oil facilities and partly because the Swiss are going to sell a
whole heap of gold. Hogs are also selling for $45 and that's no
heavenly ham to a farmer who probably spent twice that to produce it.

So golly, what has the CRB got to do with anything. I mean, you
probably don't care about the CRB. Well, you should. It represents a
sign that the Deflationary cycle is about to accelerate.
As the CRB plunges towards 160 or lower, bonds should do well. The
acceleration of Deflation also suggests that even if stocks get back to
New Highs, it will not be a sustainable move. New Highs into 1999 would
set up a bubble top.

For a deeper discussion of this topic check out our chairman's latest
article on the web,
"The Fate of the Share Markets." For quick access to this article
click here:

pei-intl.com

If this link does not work, go to our web site and click on MAIN. At
the top of the White Page
you will see the title to this article: "The Fate of the Share Markets"

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